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概要

Agricultural Growth and Investment Options for Poverty Reduction in the D.R.Congo: A General Equilibrium Approach?

James WY, Jean B and Nlemfu M

This paper evaluates the contribution of agricultural growth to poverty reduction in the D.R.Congo over the projection period 2013 - 2020. It raises questions over the investment options to sustain such growth effort. We use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model combine with survey-based microsimulation analysis at both national and subnational levels. We assume in the simulations that additionnal growth in total factor productivity is an exogenous factor and find the following results. First, we find that 8.21% agricultural annual growth rate is more effective at reducing poverty and achieves the first MDG goal by 2020. Second, we identify agricultural investment priorities and the required levels of public spending to achieve such growth and poverty reduction goals. We further analyze the growth at the subsector level and find that cereals and roots are more pro-poor. From this perspective, agricultural strategy based on expanding foodcrops production should be afforded the highest priority.