株式と外国為替取引のジャーナル
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概要

A Predictive and Empirical Analysis of CPI Rate on Key Financial Indicators

Bilal Hungund*, Shilpa Rastogi

The assessment and performance of national economy involves the aggregation of major economic indicators. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is perhaps the most used indicator among the numerous statistical indicators that are available to the planners, administrators, policy makers and the general public at large to analyse the status of the national economy at any point of time. Additionally, the six core financial indicators of an Indian economy namely, foreign exchanges reserves, supply of money, nominal exchange rates, stock market index, country’s industrial production, and CPI rate have a significant relationship in the development of an economy. The aggregation of these indicators could imply that the change in one indicator may affect the other indicator. The relationship of the indicators was explored and it was concluded that there is a correlation between CPI rate and five specified key financial indicators (considering sub-components). Additionally, there is multicollinearity present in the specified key financial indicators. Furthermore, by using a comprehensive data science tool a predictive deep learning model was built to predict the CPI rate.