人類学
オープンアクセス

概要

Coronavirus Model with Territorial Vulnerability Parameters

Sangeetha Choudhary*

After the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel
coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has rapidly opened to other
provinces, neighbouring countries and eventually has become a
worldwide terror. It’s indeed a matter of great concern to review the
transmission dynamics of this virus. The potential and severity of
a plague and providing critical information for identifying the type
of disease interventions and intensity are often well understood by the unknown basic reproduction number. A stochastic model
is often used to estimate this number with possible safeguard on uncertainties. The challenge is to forecast unseen future simulated
data for 3 different scenarios at a short time points. We estimate
current levels of transmissibility, over variable time points under
different levels of interventions and use that to forecast near-future
incidence. The forecasted values of incidence are often used for
determining the near future mortality also.