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概要

Has the Tea Party Eclipsed the Republican Establishment in the 2016 Presidential Elections?

Libby RT

The premise of the paper is that Tea Party candidates for the presidency have an institutional advantage over establishment candidates in the Republican primaries and caucuses. The reason for this is that the Tea Party constitutes the base of the Republican Party. The majority of Republicans support the Tea Party and they constitute 64% of primary voters. The significance of the 2016 presidential elections is that the Tea Party emerged as the leading force in the national Republican Party. In the lead-up to the first presidential caucus in Iowa, three of the top five Republican candidates, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz are Tea Party-backed candidates. These three candidates alone are ranked number one by more than 50% of Republican voters in the polls. The combined number one ranking of all establishment candidates Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Chris Christy average only 30% of Republican voters in the polls. The paper explains the Tea Party’s 10 principles and “primary” strategy to defeat Republicans in Name Only (RINOs) in primaries. It also examines the campaign organizations of the Tea Party Candidates which is central to mobilizing the Tea Party vote in primaries and caucuses.