医療安全と世界の健康
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概要

Analysis of Introduced Species as a Form of Biological Weapon: Part 1-Theory and Approaches

Roberge Lawrence F

The hypothesis of this paper is that introduced species (aka non-indigenous species) could be used as a form of biological weapon (BW). The first step of this paper is a brief review of biological weapon concepts, and a review ofthe definition of an introduced species, as well as a brief survey of historical examples of introduced species. Previous evidence of the use of invasive species as a form of biological weapon is also discussed.

The methods to predict a successful invasive species candidate is discussed, and examples of various theories and computer software models to analyze introduced species invasions are reviewed. The use of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction) has found promise in predicting the range and effective invasiveness of an organism, prior to the actual invasion.

This research discusses the approaches of invasive species by hostile actors (aggressor nation, crime syndicate,bioterrorists, or lone individual), as well as the various BW targets (public health, ecosystems, agricultural commodities,biofuel feed stocks). The vulnerability of nations to invasive species introduction, as well as the risk factors favoring invasive species BW would also be examined. Some of these risk factors favoring a BW attack using invasive speciesinclude poor communication between local population and government scientists and decision makers; monocultureof agricultural fields; disturbed or damaged ecosystems, and presence of favored niches in the targeted areas. Thestrategies to introduce BW invasive species are discussed, and range from human smuggling and delivery by vectors to biocruise-the technique of using cruise missile technology (aka unmanned aerial vehicles), to deliver and disperse BW agents (e.g. virus, fungal spores, bacteria, even insects), at precise targeted sites.

Two models are presented to describe the process of invasive species BW by hostile actors-one, using a single invasive species and one leading to invasion meltdown of the targeted area. Four examples of potential BW using introduced species are discussed, with supportive evidence for their effectiveness and invasive potential on targets (Nipah virus, Striga plant parasite, Heartwater-Ehrlichia ruminantium, and Wheat Stem Rust-Puccinia graminis f. st.tritici). Finally, the data supports the hypothesis that introduced species could be used as a form of biological weapon.